Hotel Revenue Glossary · Forecasting

Lead Time Distribution

A histogram or curve showing what percentage of total bookings for a given arrival date were made at each lead time (days before arrival). It reveals when guests tend to book — for example, 25% within 7 days, 50% within 30 days, 80% within 60 days.

Why it matters: Lead time distribution shapes pricing strategy timing. If 40% of bookings arrive in the last 7 days, premature discounting gives away revenue. If 70% book 30+ days out, waiting too long to adjust rates means missing the bulk of the booking window.

Worked example: Pull a year of arrivals and bucket them by lead time. A city property finds 31% of room nights booked inside 7 days, 27% between 8 and 30, 24% between 31 and 90, and 18% beyond 90. Nearly a third arrives in the final week, so a Wednesday reading 55% occupancy fourteen days out is not behind. Discount it there and you have cut the price of business that was coming anyway.

Common mistake: Applying one property-wide distribution to every date. Your Saturdays may fill 90 days out while your Tuesdays are half-empty at 7 days, and a citywide event date books on a curve entirely its own. Build the distribution by day of week, and separately for known event dates. A blended curve smooths away exactly the dates that need a decision.

All glossary terms Booking Window (Lead Time) Booking Pace Forecast